Pre-Primary Finance Reports: Senate Round-up ? Bearing Drift ...

Pre-Primary Finance Reports: Senate Round-up

By Stephen Spiker | August 20, 2011 | in Politics, Virginia ?????

Stephen Spiker provides another statewide fundraising wrap-up, this time looking at the contested State Senate elections, which will determine if the GOP will hold all three seats of power next year.

*-Cross-posted at NoVa Common Sense. Click here for the House of Delegates Round-up. -*

Personally speaking, I?ve worked on several House of Delegate campaigns and worked as a staffer for a Delegate. I love House races because they?re so locally-oriented, but still have big-race potential, particularly in the expensive NoVa districts. However, as exciting as those races are this year, the outcome is not in doubt (Republicans will pick up a few seats, expanding their already comfortable margin) and relative to the number of seats, there aren?t as many exciting races, especially considering how few seats are actually being contested.

The real main event this November is the State Senate. We all know the details. The Democrats hold a narrow 22-18 majority, thanks to their gains in 2007 and a 2010 special election. The Republicans just need two seats to flip, since LG Bill Bolling holds the tiebreaker. In the past two sessions, so many conservative priorities have passed with huge margins and the Governor?s support, only to die in the Senate. That is what is on the line here.

As with the House, the numbers reflect the pre-primary period from July 1 to August 10, and are displayed as:

Candidate: Raised this period | Cash on Hand | # of Individual Donors

(The raised amount is taken from total receipts, which includes contributions, in-kinds, and loans. Where evident, I try to point out various anomalies like huge self-loans or party involvement.)

Because this report is for two weeks before the primary, many cash-on-hand numbers are low, as they should be. We begin in Northern Virginia, and move on from there.

Fairfax Districts:

Uncontested: None

SD 32
Janet Howell (i): $58K | $202K | 121
Patrick Forrest: $37K | $31K | 79

McDonnell Vote: 45%

Forrest continues to fundraise well, but in this district against a money juggernaut like Howell, I don?t think it?ll amount to much.

SD 34
Chap! Petersen (i): $31K | $260K | 86
Gerarda Culipher: $5K | $17K | 50

McDonnell Vote: 53%

The 34th is a winnable district against someone other than the affable, bow-tie wearing Chap!. Maybe when this seat opens up after Chap! runs statewide, we?ll see what happens here.

SD 36
Toddy Puller (i): $75K | $138K | 182
Jeff Frederick: $54K | $79K | 165
Tito Munoz: $33K | $30K | 94

McDonnell Vote: 49%

This should probably go under the PWC heading, but I live in this district, and I live in Fairfax County, so here it shall remain. Tito the Builder actually increased on his meager Q2 effort, but it still isn?t enough to come close to Frederick (who outraised even Puller last time around). Frederick is sitting on a nice pile of cash, even after spending $65K over the past six weeks, which will come in handy in the general. And recent polling that shows Frederick routing Munoz in the primary means that its a prudent decision on Frederick?s part to leave some in reserves. This is a Dem-leaning seat against an entrenched incumbent, but Frederick is well-known in Eastern PWC and if we?re able to peel this one off, taking over the State Senate is a near certainty. Full Disclosure: I?m supporting Jeff Frederick in this race.

Much, much more beneath the fold. Click here to continue reading.

SD 37
Dave Marsden (i): $41K | $55K | 131
Jason Flanary: $13K | $42K | 50
Steve Hunt: $8K | $9K | 79

McDonnell Vote: 54%

This primary has gotten regrettably nasty the past several weeks, but the reports show that both men will be behind the 8-ball money-wise against the still-illegal Dave Marsden. I?d expect to see that $42K in Flanary?s war chest get used before the 23rd; in the past six weeks Hunt has spent $14K to Flanary?s $18K, which seems low. Full Disclosure: I?m supporting Steve Hunt in this race.

SD 39
George Barker (i): $59K | $69K | 142
Miller Baker: $16K | $83K | 91
Scott Martin: $6K | $40K | 15

McDonnell Vote: 53%

Baker?s massive cash-on-hand figure comes from a $75K loan (Martin is close behind, loaning himself $63K thus far), but Baker has still managed to outspend Martin the past reporting period 3-to-1 ($45K to $15K). Full Disclosure: I?m supporting Miller Baker in this race.

Alexandria/Arlington/Falls Church Districts:

Uncontested: None

SD 30:
Adam Ebbin: $62K | $48K | 235
Elizabeth Garvey: $53K | $31K | 293
Rob Krupicka: $42K | $31K | 230
Tim McGhee: $1K | $3K | 10

McDonnell Vote: 42%

Knowing little about inside Democratic politics and less about Arlington politics, I?ll simply link to Ben?s recent endorsement/analysis: http://notlarrysabato.typepad.com/doh/2011/08/30th-senate-district-endorsement.html He calls Ebbin the underdog, though Ebbin has been raising money well. In the past six weeks, Ebbin has spent $84K, to Kupricka?s $67K and Garvey?s $112K.

SD 31:
Jaime Areizaga-Soto: $40K | $47K | 124
Barbara Favola: $60K | $35K | 137
Caren Merrick: $40K | $126K | 110

McDonnell Vote: 44%

I?m much more familiar with this race, following the drama unfold in the papers and at Blue Virginia. This has been one of the most expensive races thus far, with Soto spending over $103K and Favola putting in a whopping $164K, just in the past six weeks. Favola has been aided by $25K self-loan, while Soto has given himself thus far $215K. With Merrick?s outstanding fundraising as well (she brought in more than $150K in Q2), expect this to be one of the most expensive races in the state.

SD 35:
Dick Saslaw (i): $44K | $676K | 69
Robert Sarvis: $2K | $15K | 17

McDonnell Vote: 42%

It feels kind of odd to count this as a ?contested? race, even though nominally it is. The most consequential result of Sarvis?s bid is that now I have to include Saslaw in my list of ?Trendsetters? at the bottom.

Prince William County Districts:

Uncontested: None

SD 13:
Dick Black: $11K | $31K | 18
Bob FitzSimmonds: $4K | $25K | 29
John Stirrup: $41K | $27K | 129
Shawn Mitchell: $22K | $8K | 112

McDonnell Vote: 65%

There?s been some recent unpleasantness in this race, as well. However, unlike the 31st, whoever wins this race seems assured to win in November. Dick Black has spent $41K the past six weeks, to Fitzsimmond?s $6K and Stirrup?s $95K; clearly, the PWC Supervisor has the cash advantage. Full Disclosure: I?m supporting John Stirrup.

SD 29:
Chuck Colgan (i): $25K | $50K | 30
Tom Gordy: N/A

McDonnell Vote: 55%

Gordy is a recent addition, and hasn?t yet filed a report.

Loudoun Districts:

Uncontested: None

SD 33:
Mark Herring (i): $37K | $181K | 64
Patricia Phillips: $11K | $27K | 48

McDonnell Vote: 55%

Moving right along.

The Downstate Six To Watch:

SD 1:
John Miller (i): $52K | $137K | 218
Mickey Chohany: $115K | $127K | 131

McDonnell Vote: 54%

Mickey?s fundraising was solid, but not impressive, during Q2. That?s changed now, thanks in no small part to a $50K donation from Bob McDonnell?s PAC. However, Chohany would?ve outraised Miller even without it, and is now just $10K behind the incumbent in cash-on-hand. This is a district that Democrats won due to circumstances, and Republicans are serious about taking it back. The Democrats did their best to move the district to the left during redistricting, moving it a whopping nine points and turning into a slight lean-Dem district, so Chohany needs to keep his foot on the gas.

SD 6:
Ralph Northam (i): $65K | $257K | 66
Ben Loyola: $44K | $67K | 107

McDonnell Vote: 54%

You may remember from Loyola from the 2nd District primary (this is primarily for Nova Common Sense readers, as Bearing Drift folks don?t need any refresher). In fact, I interviewed him in the summer of 2009 and found his biography to be very compelling and his answers to be very engaging. Ben is a sharp and passionate candidate, and I?m excited to see what he can do in this race. Northam?s district has shifted about 4 points to the Dems after he won in 2007, making this district very swingy and given Northam?s fundraising, a slightly uphill battle for Loyola. But he?s raised enough to keep this race very competitive.

SD 17:
Edd Houck (i): $69K | $520K | 161
Bryce Reeves: $137K | $174K | 150

McDonnell Vote: 61%

Democrats moved Houck?s district 6 points to the left, but even then McDonnell still passed 60%. However, Houck wouldn?t be a 20+ year incumbent if he didn?t have deep roots in the region. Reeves outraised him this period with help from McDonnell?s PAC, but still lags far behind Houck?s cool half-million. Still, Houck?s winning percentage has steadily decreased since 1999, while he outspent his previous opponent by a 3-to-1 margin last go round. With a better environment, a more even financial battle, and the right candidate, this could be a real pick-up opportunity. However, Houck is still the favorite to win.

SD 20:
Roscoe Reynolds (i): $42K | $91K | 106
Bill Stanley (i): $122K | $42K | 34
Jeff Evans (i): $427 | $2K | 8

McDonnell Vote: 60%

Again, Democrats moved this strong McDonnell district 7 points to the left, for a long-term incumbent who has deep roots in the region. Reynolds has been less successful at fundraising than Houck, but he can probably expect a big cash infusion from the Dem Caucus. Bill Stanley only recently won a special election to get to the Senate, and agreed to pay his dues by running in a new district when he and Ralph Smith got put together. It remains to see how much his incumbency will help him, though $50K checks from McDonnell?s PAC certainly will. Another question mark in this district is Jeff Evans, a disgruntled Republican running as an Indie. If his fundraising is any indication, his impact will be minimal.

SD 21:
John Edwards (i): $22K | $94K | 55
Dave Nutter: $26K | $100K | 65
Tripp Godsey: $5K | $2K | 25

McDonnell Vote: 52%

This race surprised a lot of people, as Nutter is giving up a safe Delegate seat to run in a Dem-leaning district against 10+ year incumbent who previously ran statewide, and is even going up against a Tea Partier in the primary (though he seems to have the nomination in hand). Of the ?six to watch?, this is certainly the most uphill contest. But by putting so much pressure on Democrats, especially with strong candidates like Nutter, the GOP has definitely put the Democrats on the defensive, and limited the amount of money they can spend in any one district.

SD 38:
Phil Puckett (i): $107K | $213K | 215
Adam Light: $79K | $98K | 76

McDonnell Vote: 66%

One of the biggest questions going into 2011 and moving forward is the voting patterns of the Southwest. Here you have a lot of ?coal country? conservative Democrats who vote Republican for President but still can vote Democrat, especially for local candidates or exceptional politicians like Mark Warner. However, the table has been slowly turning, and some major developments have occurred just recently, including upsets like Will Morefield over Dan Bowling in 2009, and Morgan Griffith ousting Rick Boucher in 2010.

This race, in particular, has a lot of similarities to the Boucher contest. You have an older incumbent who is used to going unopposed suddenly in the fight of his life, which explains why he?s able to raise so much money. To add to the draw, Adam Light actually ran for Congress in 2010, losing to Griffith for the nomination. If the Boucher loss is the beginning of a trend, rather than a fluke, this could be one of several General Assembly seats in the region that flip.

The Rest:

SD 2:
Mamie Locke (i): $1K | $48K | 3
Thomas Harmon: N/A

McDonnell Vote: 40%

Not much to see here.

SD 3:
Tommy Norment (i): $83K | $388K | 143
Mark Frechette: $1K | $152.85 | 6

McDonnell Vote: 71%

Frechette is a Tea Partier challenging the Senate Minority Leader. One wonders if Frechette and many others intended to rock the establishment by challenging incumbent Republicans throughout the state, and all but one of them backed out. Nevertheless, I?d expect to see Norment win easily. Just a note, as this race is uncontested in the fall, Norment will not be included in the ?trendsetters? below.

SD 10:
John Watkins (i): $19K | $211K | 30
David Bernard: $7K | $5K | 23

McDonnell Vote: 59%

Given how much on the defense Democrats are, I don?t think Bernard can expect to find much support for his campaign in this lean GOP district.

SD 19:
Ralph Smith (i): $23K | $66K | 40
Brandon Bell: $0 | $0 | 0

McDonnell Vote: 69%

An interesting race to watch: Bell was defeated in the primary four years ago, and seeing no Democrat stepping up, is running as a centrist Independent hoping to forge a coalition of his Republican supporters, Independents, and Democrats to defeat Smith. He only recently got in, which explains his low fundraising. Without any party support, he has a lot of organizational hurdles to overcome. But these type of races are tough to predict, especially given how much new territory Smith has in redistricting.

SD 22:
Brian Bates: $19K | $27K | 133
Thomas Garrett: $42K | $17K | 21
Mark Peake: $27K | $32K | 100
Bryan Rhode: $33K | $36K | 139
Claudia Tucker: $20K | $25K | 68
Bert Dodson: $60K | $120K | 130

McDonnell Vote: 64%

There are a lot of dynamics in this race, and without knowing much about them I don?t want to stick my head into the lion?s mouth here. As you can see, all five GOP candidates are raising money well. Rhode tops the list of spenders in the past six weeks, putting more than $100K out there, but he?s followed closely by Garrett, with $94K. The other three lag behind in the mid-$30K range in terms of spending. However, whoever wins the nomination must work quickly to reunite the party, even in a heavy GOP district, as the Democrat Dodson is sitting on a cool $100K and outraised the field this period.

SD 25:
Creigh Deeds (i): $31 | $135K | 132
T.J. Aldous: $7K | $13K | 36

McDonnell Vote: 46%

I applaud Aldous for getting into this race.

SD 27:
Jill Vogel (i): $6K | $169K | 6
Shaun Broy: N/A

McDonnell Vote: 70%

Broy is a recent addition, but Vogel has a lot of money and access to much more, and is representing a very strong GOP district.

SD 40:
Bill Carrico: $36K | $53K | 33
John Lamie: N/A

McDonnell Vote: 75%

Delegate Bill Carrico is giving up a safe House seat to run for a safe Senate seat. John Lamie?s recent addition won?t change that.

State Overview:

Obviously the Democrats are limiting the number of battlefields by not challenging any Republicans. However, given the sheer number of targets, McDonnell?s relative popularity and fundraising prowess, and the political environment, it?s difficult to see the Democrats keeping their slim 22-to-18 majority. They would need to run the table on a number of races that they won out of sheer circumstances, as well as hope that the political shift in the Southwest doesn?t continue.

The biggest issue, however, is quantity and quality. Across the state you have strong candidates raising an impressive amount of money in seats that could easily have gone without being targeted. The 31st, 36th, and 21st districts come to mind here: Caren Merrick is a great candidate who could steal away this Arlington seat based on the vitriolic nature of the Democratic primary; Jeff Frederick is uniquely suited to run and win in the new Stafford/PWC/Fairfax district; and Dave Nutter is a surprise recruiting coup. Throw in the 37th and 39th in Fairfax, and that?s five competitive races before you even get to the most competitive five races elsewhere in the state (the rest of the ?six to watch?). With such a narrow margin, it?d be an upset at this point if the Democrats hold on.

Trendsetters:

Top Five Contested Incumbent Fundraisers: Bill Stanley ($122K), Phil Puckett ($107K), Toddy Puller ($75K), Edd Houck ($69K), Ralph Northam ($65K)

Top Five Non-Incumbent Fundraisers: Bryce Reeves ($137K), Mickey Chohany ($115K), Adam Light ($79K), Adam Ebbin ($62K), Barbara Favola ($60K)

Top Five Contested Incumbent Cash-on-Hand: Edd Houck ($570K), Chap! Petersen ($260K), Ralph Northam ($257K), Phil Puckett ($213K), John Watkins ($210K)

Top Five Non-Incumbent Cash-on-Hand: Bryce Reeves ($174K), Mickey Chohany ($127K), Caren Merrick ($126K), Bert Dodson ($120K), Dave Nutter ($100K)

Challengers Who Outraised Incumbents: Mickey Chohany, Bryce Reeves, Dave Nutter

Challengers With More Cash-on-Hand Than Incumbents: Dave Nutter, Miller Baker

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About the author

Stephen Spiker

Stephen Spiker, formerly "VA Blogger" at Too Conservative, is a Northern Virginia political operative and a political consultant working in Washington D.C.

Source: http://bearingdrift.com/2011/08/20/pre-primary-finance-reports-senate-round-up/

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